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Forecast analysis of China machine tool industry market in 2015

POPULARITY:      DATE: 2016/11/14 16:57:52

2014 China machine tool industry pressure operation, downward pressure to further increase. According to China machine tool industry association information statistics key contact network and customs import and export statistics, the following 2014 annual industry operation and market situation analysis.

First, the general situation of the industry operation in 2014

1 demand continues to slump, low sales volatility

2014 1~12 months, metal processing machine new orders fell 2.7%, hand orders fell by 0.6%. Among them, the new orders for metal cutting machine fell 3.5%, hand orders fell by 1.5%; metal forming machine new orders grew by hand in hand orders grew by 1.8%.

2014 1~12 months, the whole industry product sales revenue grew 2%. Metal processing machine tool product sales revenue grew 0.7%. Among them, the metal cutting machine tool product sales revenue grew 0.3%; metal forming machine tool product sales revenue grew by 2.4%.

2 production gradually shrinking, high inventory micro drop

2014 1~12 months, metal processing machine production fell 2%. Among them, the production of gold cutting machine fell 1.7%, metal forming machine tool production fell by 3.3%.

2014 1~12 months, the industry finished product inventories fell 6.5%. Metal processing machine finished goods inventories fell 0.1%. Among them, the gold cutting machine fell 0.6%, metal forming machine tool grew by 3.1%.

3 low profit recovery, loss in high

2014 1~12 months, the industry's total profit grew by 11.4%, total profit of metal processing machine tool grew by 8.1%. Among them, the gold cutting machine grew 14.9%, metal forming machine tool grew by 2.9%.

December 2014, the industry accounted for 31.9% of loss making enterprises, metal processing machine loss enterprises accounted for $36.7%. Among them, the gold cutting machine is 42.7%, metal forming machine for the 4.3%.

4 exports remain stable and rapid growth

2014 1~12 months, total exports of $11 billion 630 million, an increase of 22.1%. Among them, the metal processing machine exports 3 billion 400 million U.S. dollars, an increase of $18.8%; metal cutting machine tool exports $2 billion 270 million, an increase of 20.6%; metal forming machine tool exports $1 billion 120 million, an increase of 15.3%. The top three exports are cutting tools ($2 billion 620 million), metal cutting machine tools ($2 billion 270 million), abrasives ($2 billion 180 million).

Exports to the United States, in the first row ($1 billion 660 million), an increase of 11.6%; Vietnam high-speed rise, ranked second ($1 billion 140 million), an increase of 231.7%; Japan was third ($970 million), an increase of 24.6%.

Export enterprises, the proportion of private enterprises continued to increase (55.5%), foreign enterprises (31.5%) and state-owned (including collective) enterprises (13%) accounted for a decline. East China ($5 billion 10 million) and Southern China (2 billion 150 million U.S. dollars) and North China ($2 billion 60 million) and other eastern coastal exports ranked the top three, an increase of 12.2%, respectively, and 14.7%. Trade reflects the proportion of general trade (85%) increased, foreign investment (13.4%) accounted for the decline.

Two, 2014 Market Overview

In recent years, China's economy has gradually entered the new normal, the growth rate, economic structure and growth momentum has undergone significant changes. Affected by it, China's machine tool market has also undergone new changes, showing new features.

1 market characteristics - "total decline, structural upgrading"

2010 began, the cumulative growth rate of domestic fixed asset investment continued to decline, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2014 totaled 15.7%, compared with 2010 fell by 8.8 percentage points. As the domestic machine tool market demand depends mainly on investment driven, so the decline in fixed asset investment growth directly led to the continued decline in the domestic machine tool market size. 2014 China machine tool market spending $31 billion 830 million, down 0.3%.

On the other hand, the domestic machine tool market structure is also rapidly upgrading. 2014 imports of machine tools in the total amount of machine tool consumption accounted for 34%, compared with 2010 increased by 0.9 percentage points. 2014 domestic CNC machine tool consumption accounted for 76.7%, compared with 2010 increased by 6.9 percentage points. Future China machine tool market structure upgrade to automation, customization and shift upgrade direction.

2 latest changes -- "power conversion, market demand change"

China's heavy chemical industry in the rapid development stage tends to end, with its associated fixed asset investment growth is declining, thereby affecting the field of related machine tool sales of goods. More typical example, from the beginning of 2011 heavy-duty machine tool production and imports of negative growth. 2014 domestic heavy-duty machine tool manufacturing enterprises production and sales average level is only equivalent to 51% in 2011, in 2014 the domestic main heavy machine tool import amount is equivalent to the year of 2011 of 75%.

China's economic development momentum is changing, since 2011, consumption gradually surpass investment as the primary driving force of economic growth. Affected by this, the production and consumption of machine tool tools for consumer goods manufacturing should be significantly better than investment related machine tool products. For example, investment related metal cutting machine tool consumption declined, while consumer oriented manufacturing of metal forming machine tools to maintain growth. In addition, in 2014 for smart phones, tablet PCs and other consumer electronics manufacturing services vertical machining center machine tool imports (up 141%) and output (up to 37.3%) to maintain rapid growth.

3 imports showed rapid rebound growth

2014 1~12 months, total imports $17 billion 780 million, an increase of 10.8%. Among them, the amount of imports of metal processing machine tool $10 billion 830 million, an increase of 7.6%; imports of metal cutting machine tool $8 billion 840 million, an increase of 11.1%; metal forming machine tool imports $1 billion 990 million, down by 5.8%. The top three imports are metal cutting machine tools ($8 billion 840 million), metal forming machine tools ($1 billion 990 million), CNC devices ($1 billion 650 million). Overall, in 2014 the import growth rate is much higher than the same period in 2013 (-20.2%).

Import sources, Japan ranked first ($5 billion 160 million), an increase of 23.6%; Germany ranked $second ($4 billion 290 million), down 0.8%; China Taiwan region ranked ($2 billion 310 million), an increase of 18%.

Import enterprises, foreign enterprises, private enterprises and state-owned (including collective) enterprises accounted for 63.6%, respectively, 20.2% and 16.2%. Compared with the same period in 2013, private enterprises accounted for an increase of 2.3 percentage points, state-owned (including collective) enterprises accounted for a decrease of 2.9 percentage points. Imported enterprises concentrated in East China ($8 billion 365 million, an increase of 7.6%), North China ($3 billion 434 million, an increase of 10.8%) and Southern China ($3 billion 60 million, an increase of 24.5%) and other eastern coastal areas. Trade reflects the proportion of general trade (71.7%) increased, the proportion of foreign investment (27.5%) declined.

Three, 2015 is expected

Based on the domestic industry and the industry's main economic data and analysis of the situation, is expected to further increase downward pressure on the economy in 2015. But with the economic reform efforts to further increase, especially the investment and financing system reform step by step and regional development strategy implemented, investment growth is expected to accelerate investment in infrastructure construction and services of investment growth will accelerate. At the same time, after several years of structural adjustment, domestic and foreign machine tool enterprises gradually adapt to changes in market demand structure, the ability to tap the potential market demand greatly enhanced. Therefore, in 2015 imports of machine tool tools is expected to maintain a slight growth in domestic machine sales is expected to be flat with the year in 2014.

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